The Decision Navigator

When to Trust Data vs. Your Gut — A One-Page Framework

🧠 Intuition
Decides WHAT & WHY
+
📊 Data
Decides HOW & WHERE
=
✨ Great Decisions
← DATA DOMINANT HYBRID INTUITION DOMINANT →
Pure Data Pricing optimization
Fraud detection
A/B test results
Data-Led Customer segments
Campaign targeting
Feature priority
True Hybrid Market entry
Partnerships
Product roadmap
Intuition-Led Brand positioning
Creative direction
Culture building
Pure Intuition Company vision
Crisis response
Disruptive bets

📊 Lean Toward Data When...

  • Rich historical data exists
  • Environment is stable & predictable
  • You're optimizing execution (the "how")
  • Stakes are high & affect others' lives
  • You're outside your area of expertise
  • Bias could be influencing you
  • You're testing a hypothesis
  • You're scaling what's already working

🧠 Lean Toward Intuition When...

  • No historical precedent exists
  • Environment is chaotic or changing fast
  • You're setting vision (the "what")
  • Decision requires creativity
  • You have deep domain expertise
  • Time pressure is extreme
  • Reading people or culture is key
  • Decision is easily reversible

🎯 THE FOUR QUESTIONS — Ask These Before Every Major Decision

1
How much relevant data exists?
Rich → Data
Sparse → Intuition
2
How stable is the environment?
Predictable → Data
Chaotic → Intuition
3
What's the time pressure?
Plenty of time → Data
Urgent → Intuition
4
How reversible is it?
One-way door → Data
Two-way door → Intuition

🟢 Trust Your Gut When...

  • You have 10,000+ hours in this domain
  • You've gotten clear feedback on past calls
  • You can articulate WHY you feel this way
  • Your gut conflicts with what you WANT
  • You're reading people, not numbers

🔴 Distrust Your Gut When...

  • Decision affects people unlike you
  • Your gut tells you what you want to hear
  • You can't explain why you feel this way
  • You're tired, stressed, or emotional
  • You're outside your expertise

Intuition tells you where to look. Data tells you what you're seeing.
Intuition frames the question. Data answers it.
Intuition leaps. Data helps you land safely.