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The Deadline Crunch

Calculate the probability of meeting project deadlines

Your Mission

  • Projects have optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic time estimates
  • Use PERT formulas to calculate expected time and variance
  • Determine the probability of meeting a given deadline
  • Use the Z-score to find probabilities from the normal distribution

Key Formulas

Expected Time: Te = (a + 4m + b) / 6
Variance: σ² = ((b - a) / 6)²
Z-score: Z = (Deadline - Te) / σ
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Challenge Complete!

You've mastered PERT probability

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The Deadline Crunch

Chapter 4 • PERT Probability

Round
1
Score
0
Streak
0
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Company
ROUND 1
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Activity Description Optimistic (a) Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b) Critical?
PERT CALCULATIONS (Critical Path) Te = (a + 4m + b) / 6
Expected Completion
0 weeks
vs
Client Deadline
0 weeks
What is the probability of meeting the deadline?
%
Hint: Calculate Z = (Deadline - Te) / σ, then look up probability
Z -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
P(%) 2.3% 6.7% 15.9% 30.9% 50.0% 69.1% 84.1% 93.3% 97.7% 99.4% 99.9%