🎛️
Control Panel
0.30
Smoothing Constant (α)
What This Means
Balanced approach - responds to changes while filtering noise.
30%
Recent Demand
70%
Previous Forecast
Quick Presets
Demand Pattern
Forecast Accuracy
0.00
MAD
0.00%
MAPE
0
RSFE
0.00
Tracking Signal
📈 Demand vs Forecast
Actual Demand
Forecast (α = 0.30)
📐 Exponential Smoothing Formula
Ft = Ft-1 + α(At-1 - Ft-1)
Example: F2 = 820 + 0.30(775 - 820) = 820 + 0.30(-45) = 806.5
💡 Key Insight
With α = 0.30, the forecast gives 30% weight to the most recent actual demand and 70% weight to the previous forecast. This is the "Goldilocks" value - balanced between responsiveness and stability.
| Period | Actual Demand | Forecast | Error (A-F) | |Error| | RSFE |
|---|