📈 Demand vs. Forecasts
Stable Demand - Coffee Shop
Moving Average
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Mean Absolute Deviation
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Exp. Smoothing
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Mean Absolute Deviation
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Linear Regression
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Mean Absolute Deviation
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Winner
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Best MAD Score
What's Happening Here?
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Simple Moving Average
F(t) = (D(t-1) + D(t-2) + ... + D(t-n)) / n
Takes the average of the last n periods. Equal weight to all. Simple, but always lags behind trends.
Exponential Smoothing
F(t) = F(t-1) + α × (A(t-1) - F(t-1))
Weights recent data more heavily. Higher α = more responsive to changes, but also more jumpy.
Linear Regression
F(t) = a + b × t
Fits a trend line through historical data. Great for trends, terrible for flat or seasonal demand.
📋 Calculation Details
Period-by-period breakdown
| Period | Actual | Moving Avg | Exp. Smooth | Regression |
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