Analyze forecast errors • Detect bias • Solve the case
🕵️ Case Briefing
Welcome, Detective. Your mission is to analyze forecast data and determine if the forecasting model is performing acceptably or showing signs of bias.
📋 Detective Guidelines
▸Tracking Signal (TS) = RSFE ÷ MAD
▸Safe Zone: TS between -4 and +4 MADs
▸Positive RSFE/TS: Forecast too LOW (under-forecasting)
▸Negative RSFE/TS: Forecast too HIGH (over-forecasting)
▸ Look for patterns in errors, not just the final number
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Case #001: The Suspicious Forecast
Under Investigation
A retail company's sales forecasting team has been using the same model for 6 months. Management wants to know if the forecasts are reliable or if there's systematic bias.